Pakistan braces for ‘transitional pain’ as IMF approves $7 billion loan

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan said on Thursday (Sep 26) it would have to go through “transitional pain” after the International Monetary Fund agreed to a new relief package of US$7 billion to bolster its faltering economy.
Although the South Asian nation’s economy has stabilised since it came close to defaulting last summer, it is dependent on IMF bailouts and loans from friendly countries to service its huge debt, which swallows up half of its annual revenues.
“There will be transitional pain, but if we are to make it the last programme, then we have to carry out structural reforms,” Minister of Finance Muhammad Aurangzeb told local broadcaster Geo News.
The three-year loan programme “will require sound policies and reforms” to support Pakistan’s ongoing efforts to strengthen its economy “and create conditions for a stronger, more inclusive, and resilient growth”, the IMF said in an earlier statement.
Pakistan in July agreed to the deal – its 24th IMF payout since 1958 – in exchange for unpopular reforms, including cutting back on power subsidies and widening its chronically low tax base.
Speaking on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York on Wednesday, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the deal came through thanks to the “tremendous support” of Saudi Arabia, China and the UAE.
“In the final phase (of negotiations), the IMF’s conditions were related to China. The way the Chinese government supported and strengthened us during this time is something I am truly grateful for,” he told reporters shortly before the deal was announced.
Last month, Aurangzeb had said Pakistan was negotiating a US$12 billion loan reprofiling from bilateral lenders.
The amount comprised US$5 billion from Saudi Arabia, US$4 billion from China and US$3 billion from the UAE for a three- to five-year period.
Reacting to the news, Pakistan’s stock exchange opened on a positive note, reaching a new record high of 82,905.
At the end of 2023, Pakistan – long locked in a cycle of political and economic crises – had amassed a total debt of more than US$250 billion, or 74 per cent of GDP, according to the IMF.
About 40 per cent of its debt is owed to external creditors in foreign currencies. Its biggest single foreign creditor is China and Chinese commercial banks, at just under US$30 billion, followed by the World Bank at more than US$20 billion, according to the report.
Pakistan last year came to the brink of default as the economy shrivelled amid political chaos following catastrophic 2022 monsoon floods and decades of mismanagement, as well as a global economic downturn.
It was saved by last-minute loans from friendly countries as well as an IMF rescue package, but its finances remain in dire straits, with high inflation and staggering public debts.
Islamabad wrangled for months with IMF officials to unlock the new loan.
It came on the condition of far-reaching reforms including hiking household bills to remedy a permanently crisis-stricken energy sector and raising pitiful tax takings.
In a nation of more than 240 million people where most jobs are in the informal sector, only 5.2 million filed income tax returns in 2022.
The IMF said Pakistan “has taken key steps to restoring economic stability with consistent reforms”. But “despite this progress, Pakistan’s vulnerabilities and structural challenges remain formidable”, it warned.
“A difficult business environment, weak governance, and an outsized role of the state hinder investment, which remains very low compared to peers,” it added